金融发展评论

农业活动所产生的碳排放是温室气体的重要组成部分，财政支农支出是政府提高农业生产效率、促进农村经济稳定持续发展和巩固农业基础地位的重要政策手段。本文以2007-2020年中国大陆30个省市区(不含西藏)的省级面板数据为研究样本，分析财政支农支出的农业碳减排效应，并构建中介效应和门槛效应模型探索农业保险、农业全要素生产率、城乡收入差距和农作物种植结构对财政支农碳减排效应的影响机制。研究发现，一是财政支农支出能显著降低农业碳排放强度；二是财政支农支出可以通过提高农业保险发展水平和农业全要素生产率降低碳排放强度；三是城乡收入差距和农作物种植结构差异会影响财政支农的农业碳减排效应。研究结论为优化财政支农政策和降低农业碳排放路径提供实证依据，助推农业现代化进程扎实前进。

Carbon emission from agricultural activities is an important part of greenhouse gas. Financial expenditure on supporting agriculture is an important policy means to improve agricultural production efficiency, promote rural economic stability and consolidate the basic position of agriculture Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2020, this paper studies the effects of fiscal expenditure on agricultural carbon emission reduction, and constructs intermediary effect and threshold effect models to explore the effects of agricultural insurance, agricultural total factor productivity, urban-rural income gap and crop planting structure on the effects of fiscal expenditure on agricultural carbon emission reduction It is found that first, financial expenditure on supporting agriculture can significantly increase the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions; Second, fiscal expenditure on supporting agriculture can improve the level of agricultural insurance and the carbon emission intensity of agricultural total factor productivity; Third, the income gap between urban and rural areas and the difference of agricultural planting structure will affect the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of financial support for agriculture The research conclusion provides empirical basis for optimizing the financial policy of supporting agriculture and the path of agricultural carbon emission to promote the solid progress of agricultural modernization.