金融发展评论

数字普惠金融作为数字化时代的新范式，显著冲击传统金融模式。本文基于2015-2023年287个地级市的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型揭示数字普惠金融对传统银行网点撤并的影响。研究结果显示：数字普惠金融指数每提升1个标准差，将增加0.1476个银行网点撤并。机制检验表明，家庭数字金融能力提升通过降低线下服务依赖度，社会信任增强通过强化线上交易安全感，构成双重传导路径，共同加速网点撤并。异质性检验发现，这种数字普惠金融带来的影响在城镇化率高、老龄化水平低、贷存比低及互联网普及率高的地区更为显著。此外，进一步研究发现数字普惠金融与银行网点撤并呈非线性关系，初期呈抑制效应，在数字普惠金融指数到达一定程度之后呈促进效应。该研究有助于深入讨论银行网点撤并现象背后的原因，并为优化银行实现降本增效提供政策启示。

As a new paradigm in the digital era,digital inclusive finance has significantly disrupted traditional financial models.Based on panel data from 287 prefecture-level cities spanning 2015 to 2023,this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to empirically analyze the relationship between digital inclusive finance and bank branch closures.The findings reveal that a one-unit increase in the development level of digital inclusive finance leads to an increase of 0.1476 units in the number of bank branch closures.Mechanism tests indicate that the enhancement of household digital financial capabilities and the strengthening of social trust levels are core transmission pathways:the former reduces residents' reliance on offline branches,while the latter reinforces trust in online financial services,collectively accelerating branch closures.Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the effect is more pronounced in regions with higher urbanization rates,low level of population aging,lower loan-to-deposit ratios,and greater internet penetration rates.Additionally,a non-linear relationship exists between the two variables:digital inclusive finance initially suppresses branch closures but shifts to a significant promoting effect as technology becomes widespread.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are proposed,including optimizing the layout of traditional bank branches and strengthening digital inclusive financial capacity building.