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结合我国可持续发展战略与绿色金融政策背景，本文利用2011-2024年沪深两市A股上市重污染企业13860个观测值，以华证ESG评级数据构建绿色绩效期望差距指标，系统分析了绿色绩效期望差距对重污染企业债务违约风险的影响机制与异质性。研究结论表明，当企业绿色绩效低于社会预期时，其债务违约风险显著抬升，“短债长用”和非效率投资在其中发挥了显著的中介效应。异质性分析显示，绿色金融越发达的地区，绿色绩效落后的重污染企业违约概率越高，且风险集中暴露于成长期与成熟期企业，衰退期企业则并不显著。
Abstract：Contextualized in China's sustainable development and green finance policies,this paper investigates how the green performance gap affects the debt default risk of heavy-polluting firms. Based on 13,860 firm-year observations of A-share listed heavy-polluting enterprises from 2011 to 2024,we construct the gap using Huazheng ESG ratings. Results demonstrate that a firm's debt default risk increases significantly when its green performance falls below social expectations. Maturity mismatch(short-term financing for long-term use) and inefficient investment act as vital mediators in this process. Heterogeneity analysis shows that lagging firms exhibit a higher default probability in regions with highly developed green finance. Moreover,such risk exposure is prominent among firms in the growth and mature stages,but insignificant for those in the decline stage.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19895/j.cnki.fdr.2026.01.005
中图分类号:F275;F832.51;X322
引用信息:
[1]刘慧芬.绿色绩效差距、资源错配与债务违约风险——来自重污染行业的证据[J].金融发展评论,2026,No.193(01):27-44.DOI:10.19895/j.cnki.fdr.2026.01.005.
基金信息:
广东省研究生教育创新计划项目(2024ANLK_028)的资助
2026-02-25
2026-02-25